Manufacturing matters
A few surprises in the latest round of statistics for county economies
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) earlier this month released its 2024 estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for counties, which means we now have five years of data since the pre-pandemic peak to analyze recovery trends. Good timing for a check-in on the state of manufacturing in local economies - sans tariff discussion.
BEA does not publish confidence intervals for its county-level GDP estimates, making it difficult to say much for certain, especially for smaller counties. But let’s assume the data for larger counties is at least directionally accurate. The manufacturing industry contributed roughly $10 billion or more to GDP in 33 counties in 2024, ranging from $9.8B in Elkhart, IN to $73.3B in Harris, TX. Inflation-adjusted growth in 2019-2024 ranged from a gain of more than 100% to a loss of nearly 40%.
I live in Texas. I would have guessed Harris County topped the list. I would have been close, but wrong. Here’s the map:
That honor goes to Mercer, NJ, where manufacturing has more than doubled in size in terms of its contribution to county GDP since 2019. Harris, TX (48.2%) and Travis, TX (40.4%) round out the top three.
Another surprise - maybe not so much to economic developers in North Carolina, but at least to me - is Durham County. According to these BEA estimates, among counties with $10B+ manufacturing industries, there are five where manufacturing contributes 25% or more of total GDP:
Elkhart, IN (55.12%)
Solano, CA (34.9%)
Durham, NC (27.2%)
Washington, OR (26.8%)
Lake, IL (25.3%)
Durham County is the only one to post double-digit, real growth in 2019-2024 (18.1%).
Curious about your local economy’s reliance on manufacturing? Here’s a map with the available estimates from BEA: